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APPRAISAL BUZZ FALL 2019 | 53
PREDICTION MACHINES: THE SIMPLE
ECONOMICS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
This is a great book for the non-techie (that’s me)
who wants a fundamental understanding of AI and
its applications. As appraisers, we need to be aware
of the direction AI may go and why there is demand.
Will AI replace humans or create jobs for humans?
Will it destroy the fabric of our lives or enhance it?
the hype from meaningful applications.
I loved the famous reference to Donald Rumsfeld’s
taxonomy of a decision: “there are known knowns,
known unknowns, and unknown unknowns.” The
three authors introduce yet another category of
as applied to valuations, will involve local market
experts - the appraiser. Not everyone agrees with me,
of course. The implications of getting this wrong are
global. I am rooting for a man and machine solution.
THE SIGNAL AND THE NOISE: WHY SO MANY
I give this book 5 stars. It was well written and
intellectually engaging. Drawing on his own
groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of
prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a
true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most
predictions fail, often at great cost to society,
because most of us have a poor understanding of
probability and uncertainty.
If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our
predictions can get better too. This is the
“prediction paradox:” The more humility we have
about our ability to make predictions, the more
successful we can be in planning for the future.
If you believe smart people can’t make dumb
predictions, then learn about the failure of Long-Term